After a very exhausting and bearish 2022, in which the price of Bitcoin (BTC) lost 64%, cryptocurrency market participants have high expectations for 2023. However, the relatively short history of BTC trading teaches that the following year after the end of the previous bear markets was a period of accumulation with mostly sideways price action.
Nevertheless, each of these periods saw an interesting interval of several months immediately following the macro bottom of the BTC price. It always led to a relatively large upward movement and the reach of a local peak, after which came another correction. As a result of it, the BTC price generated a higher low on the long-term chart, after which the actual bull market began.
In today’s analysis, BeInCrypto attempts to estimate the price and timing for a potential peak of the BTC price in 2023, to which a possible upward move would lead. It does so on the basis of historical data, the hypothesis of Bitcoin cycles and their similarities, and Fibonacci retracement levels.
At the same time, the analysis assumes that the level of $15,495 reached on November 21, 2022, was the macro bottom of the current bear market. This assumption is not necessarily true and could be quickly falsified if we see lower BTC prices in 2023. However, it is necessary in order to estimate targets for the potential upward movement that may soon happen.
Bitcoin Historical Corrections and Accumulations
Looking at the trading history of the BTC price, we see 4 major bear markets that occurred in the years: 2011, 2014, 2018 and 2022. According to the hypothesis of Bitcoin lengthening cycles, each successive bear market lasted longer, but at the same time led to a smaller percentage decline in the BTC price.
Next, we note that the declines during each bear market took the form of an ABC correction according to Elliott Wave theory. Even the most recent bear market of 2022 can be captured in the form of this correction. However, it should be assumed that the bull market peak was not reached in November 2022 at $69,000, but in April 2022 at $64,500. Of course, the latter assumption results in a rather unusual form of ABC correction. Despite this, it agrees with many technical indicators, on-chain data, social activity and sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.
However, if one does not agree with this assumption – arguing that Bitcoin did reach a higher price at the end of 2021 – then the bear market can be correctly expressed in the form of a 5-wave Elliott impulse. Significantly, both wave count scenarios indicate that current levels of the BTC price may correspond with the macro bottom of this cycle.
Then we see that after reaching a macro bottom, Bitcoin initiated a stronger (in 2012 and 2019) or weaker (2015) upward movement. It led to a local peak, always below the previously reached all-time high (green circles).
This peak was always followed by another significant correction (red circles). It generated a higher bottom of the Bitcoin price, ended the accumulation period, and initiated the actual bull market. It is worth adding that all this happened before the next halving (blue lines).
Local peaks after a bear market
Next, we can measure the time period from the macro bottom of the historical declines to the next local peak. Thus, we get the following data: 77 days in 2011-12, 175 days in 2015, and 196 days in 2019 (blue date ranges).
According to the hypothesis of Bitcoin lengthening cycles, the next local peak after a macro bottom is reached over an increasingly longer period of time. Thus, if it were to lengthen now as well, it can be assumed that it will be reached about 215 days after the bottom.
However, if the cycle did not lengthen, then taking the average of historical periods, the next peak would appear after 150 days. This gives us a date range from April 17 to June 26, 2023. This is where Bitcoin could reach a hypothetical local peak.
Further, to determine the price range for this move, we overlay logarithmic Fibonacci retracement levels on previous bear markets. Historically, the bullish move following the macro bottom of the BTC price reached: the 0.5 Fib level in 2011-12, the 0.382 Fib level in 2015, and the 0.618 Fib level in 2019.
Therefore, we can take the range of 0.382-0.618 Fib levels as a possible target for Bitcoin’s upcoming upward move. This corresponds to a price range of $27,500 – $39,000.
BTC Price Peak at $33,000 in April 2023
Summarizing the above analysis, we get a date range between April 17 and June 26, 2023, and a price range at the $27,500 – $39,000 levels. This is the area on the chart (blue rectangle) where Bitcoin could reach a local peak in 2023. It will be followed by a correction.
However, if one goes one step further, wanting to further identify the time and price for a potential peak, one can refer to the impending halving. According to the latest data, this event is forecast for the end of March 2024.
Historically, we observe (chart above) that the local peak after the macro bottom of the BTC price reached 47, 52, and 46 weeks before halving (green date ranges), respectively. On average, we get a period of 48 weeks before the next halving, in which the local peak should appear. This period corresponds to the date of April 24, 2023, which is within the initial part of the range we have established.
On the other hand, with regard to the projected price of Bitcoin, we can take the averaged 0.5 Fib retracement level as the most likely price for upward movement in 2023. It corresponds to a price of around $33,000.
This level corresponds to both the historical data of previous cycles and the area of long-term support for the BTC price in 2021 (blue arrows). Currently, it can be expected to act as resistance. Therefore, it will probably not be easily overcome in one move. Therefore, it may be followed by a strong correction.
Thus, we get a Bitcoin price prediction for April 24, 2023, at $33,000 (red area). It should be emphasized that this is a very optimistic scenario and there is a good chance that it will not materialize. However, if Bitcoin cycles rhyme, halving still determines the rhythm of the entire cryptocurrency market, and logarithmic Fib retracements can be trusted, then this is a feasible scenario.
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